forecasting

Statistical Analysis of Multi-day Solar Irradiance using a Threshold Time Series model

Carolina D. Euan Campos, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Statistics

Nov 28, 12:00 - 13:00

B9 H2 R2325

solar energy solar irradiance analysis nonlinearity TAR model statistical analysis forecasting

Abstract The analysis of solar irradiance has important applications in predicting solar energy production from solar power plants. Although the sun provides every day more energy than we need, the variability caused by environmental conditions affects electricity production. Most of the existing statistical models to forecast solar irradiance are linear and highly depend on normality assumptions. However, solar irradiance shows strong non-linearity and is only measured during the day time. Thus, we propose a new multi-day threshold autoregressive (TAR) model to quantify the variability of the

Cristian Felipe Jiménez Varón

Ph.D. Student, Statistics

functional data analysis Quantile spectral methods Functional Time Series forecasting Statistical Modeling Environmental Statistics

Cristian Felipe Jiménez Varón is a Ph.D. candidate in the KAUST Environmental Statistics research group under the supervision of Professor Ying Sun. Before joining KAUST, Cristian obtained a master's degree in applied mathematics from the Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Manizales (UNAL), Colombia. He also holds dual bachelor's degrees in industrial engineering and chemical engineering from UNAL. Research Interests Cristian's research interests include the analysis of large volumes of data, statistical modeling and environmental statistics.